Page Economic Development Plan Review - Continued

Today continuing with a brief summary of the 2004 Page County Economic Development Plan...

The Plan describes a "high quality of life" in the county - good land prices and a relatively low cost of living, combined with scenic environment in an area bounded by the National Park, GWNF, and the Guest/Shenandoah River State Park.

There is a reference to the history of closing down the manufacturing centers in the County, well underway in 2003-2004, with a statement that growth in tourism, retail, and services showed promise in continued growth during the previous decade, and with attention, might continue this upward trend going forward. Combined with investment and promotion, further development would be a final segment that might be used to propel the County forward.

Looking at the resources that would provide a foundation for executing the plan, there is an appropriate focus on transportation and utility infrastructure, a brief consideration of what low land prices for zoned commercial and industrial properties might mean to development opportunity, and a reference to the qualifications of the Page County work force.

Taking these in a prioritized order, I would have to rate the transportation issue as one of the most important parts of the strategy. While the intersection of two US highways in Luray might have served as adequate all the way up to the '50's, once the interstate system was built allowing speedy and fast transportation, much of the traffic moved off of the old two lane roads and onto the new four-laners; in Page County's case, that means across the mountain to I-81, or 30 miles north, to I-66.

Effectively, this eliminates most manufacturing from consideration in an economy such as Page County's; reaching into the dark resources of my economics undergrad I seem to recall location theory that suggested proximity to natural resources is one factor, and proximity to market is the other. With the exception of agricultural and food products, we just don't have a driver that justifies manufacturing business location decisions or further development of a larger scale transportation infrastructure.

We could talk about the rail line that goes through town. There is capacity in that system for Page County commerce, as the trains head up to the inland port in Front Royal; analysis of the supply chain would be needed to look at what's downstream and upstream in the system in order to advise what might be appropriately located in the County.

And an interesting exception to the rule for transportation remains. I don't know as much as I would like to about the old Wrangler factory that is now used as a distribution center. That any element of that commerce was retained here is a real credit to community leaders, I hope that is something that can be extended to further benefit the economy in other sectors.

Leaving utilities aside, let's look at what these low commercial and industrial land prices mean. With poor transportation infrastructure and limited access to natural resources, the industrial sector doesn't have a strong justification for locating here. That leaves commercial development...again, that is going to want a reason for locating here to justify investment.

Usually, that would be a natural economic center - think banking in Charlotte (or Richmond), or high tech in Silicon Valley (or the Dulles Corridor), and proximity to a transportation node - most likely an airport in this case. While Luray sports a developing general aviation airport, it isn't adequate for this purpose, since we are close enough to Dulles for it to be the choice.

Low prices on zoned developable land means there is little demand, further reinforcing the transportation issues and reminding us of the limitation of the utilities infrastructure issues (power and communications infrastructure, specifically) as well. Although I still have not read the business plan and strategy about the data center I keep hearing about, my own opinion is that that will never achieve great success until these other factors are addressed.

The work force is the last factor I'll look at today. The Lord Fairfax extension in Page County seems to be a high point in this area, and I think the promotion that it continues to receive is welcome and a true benefit. With the departure of the manufacturing sector, we have what is known as "structural unemployment" meaning well experienced and qualified folks - but no place for them to apply their skills. Recognizing this, a good investment is to help the people affected to learn new skills so they will be prepared for the opportunities that are available to them, and that is the role I understand that Lord Fairfax fills today.

So, with these thoughts about the infrastucture and basic economic resources behind us, next post will move into discussion of a couple of the economic goals outlined in the 2004 plan. I'd emphasize at this point that I don't mean to convey criticism of what's happening, just that now that we have been going to the Hawksbill Cabin for two years I am finally getting around to an understanding of the County. I find myself a stakeholder there, and I am interested in understanding the situation so that I can better find a way to make my own contribution to making positive changes.