http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/03/AR2009050302066.html
Typically, the stock markets give an early indication that a recovery is underway - there doesn't seem to be consensus yet that this is the case, although my sense of it is, market activities of the last two months indicate we are about 6 to 9 months from seeing improvements.
The Post article mentions the Page County unemployment rate, and goes into some detail about those out of work. In one case, a former skilled worker/commuter has been out of work for 10 months.
If the economy is going to be in the dumps a few more months, that is not going to be any comfort for these folks. Even the markets' possible turnaround isn't going to make anyone's day, since so few people actually make their living with capital gains or dividends, or even trading activity.
It will be a few more months until stimulus spending has an impact as well. But from my perspective, working in the government contracts field, I am starting to see a lot of activity on this front, and I believe that these funds will have the impact of accelerating the recovery and providing it with a solid foundation so that it continues, until private sector activities can fulfill their traditional role.
We can begin to think about better times ahead, but we need to make sure we make it through the near-term right now.
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